Economists who have studied the impact of national party conventions says a report from the marketing firm Tourism Economics does not accurately reflect the actual impact of the 2024 Republican National Convention in Milwaukee.
Economist Victor Matheson of College of the Holy Cross has studied and written on national conventions and large events, He called the release, which claims the event had a $321.5 million impact, is a “promotional booklet/press release, not a serious economic impact study.”
That’s because economic studies include items such as crowding out due to an event, diverted spending and more.
“There was not a single mention in the report about crowding out,” Matheson told The Center Square. “Like how many events had to bypass the arena during the extended setup period. How many businesses lost traffic during the event due to security concerns and congestion.
A 2017 paper from Berry College’s Frank Stephenson, Matheson and Lauren Heller showed conventions typically bring in $20 million in increased hotel spending, making the average claims of a $36.6 million from lodging and accommodations in Milwaukee highly unlikely.
An updated paper from Heller, Stephenson and Abhi Aurobindo showed that, in 2016, the Republican National Convention brought in $19.5 million more hotel spending while the Democratic National Convention had a $39 million hotel impact in Philadelphia.
“Hotel revenues don’t count business lost due to capacity constraints,” Matheson said of the Tourism Economics report. “Our past studies of other conventions find net hotel spending up by about $20 million, roughly half what these guys claim.”
Tourism Economics is a marketing firm and subsidiary of Oxford Economics that is also paid to create economic impact numbers on tourism for each state. Those numbers are regularly disputed by economists who study events and impacts.
“Viewing what ‘economic impact’ consultants do to be economics is like considering horoscopes to be astronomy,” economist J.C. Bradbury of Georgia’s Kennesaw State University wrote. “Newspapers are smart enough to put horoscopes next to the comics and Dear Abby, while economic impact ‘studies’ get banner headlines on the front page.”
Matheson pointed out that the Milwaukee report is “all vibe without actual figures” while pointing out that no government audited figures were used in the report.
“It is also unclear if the direct spending on setup was spent on Milwaukee businesses or on national media consultants, designers, directors, etc.” Matheson said calling it a “glitzy report that presents no real evidence on economic impact.”
